Our Research
Accusations of overcapacity drive geopolitical polarization
China’s economy at “overcapacity”; Yellen goes to Beijing; The US, Japan and Australia invest in diversifying supply chains to mitigate Chinese risk; AI-generated disinformation targets US elections; Cybersecurity lapses lead to political pile on; East Asia hedges against China, while Ma visits Beijing
Business Intelligence Report: The Chinese Vaping Industry
This report provides an overview of the Chinese vaping industry, highlighting notable companies and their connections to the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC).
Xi’s plan to win back foreign businesses hits hacking roadblock
China tries to woo back foreign businesses; Congress remains tough on China, in spite of America’s CEOs; China adopts additional protectionist measures, but semiconductors remain an exception; ByteDance isn’t budging on TikTok; DOJ calls out China’s hacking; “Three Body Problem” becomes a hit outside China
Two-Sessions, TikTok, and Google’s insider problem
Our latest Red Report on China's recent "Two Sessions" political meeting, the TikTok ban, questions about growth targets, and chip manufacturers.
Heightened China Troubles Continue for Foreign Businesses
2430 Group’s Red Report on China’s legal securitization; China’s lobbying efforts; China’s first 6G satellite; TSMC hedging against potential invasion; hiring hackers; and Hungary as the West’s Achilles Heel
Russia and China are part of the same problem for the United States
Members of the US Congress who oppose further military aid for Ukraine often seek to justify their position by claiming that China rather than Russia presents a greater danger to the United States. They argue that the rise of China means it is in American interests to accommodate Russia, while it should be up to Europe to shoulder the burden of Ukrainian security.
Xi’s world tour fails to distract from CCP’s tightening grip
Our latest Red Report on Xi’s diplomatic efforts, the Biden Administration’s push for export controls, and a heating up election in Taiwan.
Chinese Disinformation Targeting Japan
This study identifies three key narratives targeting Japan that the CCP has amplified and distorted to bolster CCP influence relative to Japan.
China’s aggressive fragility
Director Glenn Chafetz writes in The Hill about the nervousness that underlies much of China’s politicking on the global stage.
When is our 9/11 Moment with China?
Tom Lyons, co-founder of 2430 Group, argues in The Cipher Brief that 9/11 fundamentally shifted US foreign policy priorities towards the Middle East. When will we have a similar reckoning with China?
Revolutionary Change in the Intelligence Community: The Technology Factor
2430 Director Glenn Chafetz talks to Deep State Radio’s podcast about technological innovation in the intelligence community.
How China Evades Sanctions & Threatens Global Resources
2430 Group exposed an attempt by a China-backed company, Norin Mining, to hide its connection to its sanctioned parent company while seeking to acquire an Australian private equity firm's shares of its copper mining operations in Zambia.
Why Putin’s Russia cannot accept its borders
Glenn Chafetz, 2430 Director, and John Sipher, a co-founder of Spycraft Entertainment, write for the Atlantic Council that Putin’s obsession with Ukraine is grounded in his understanding of Russia’s imperial history.
China, Lawfare, and the Contest for Control of Low Earth Orbit
2430 Group’s Glenn Chafetz and Xavier Ortiz argue in The Diplomat that Chinese government seeks strategic advantage in space through attacks on the Western private sector.
How China’s Political System Discourages Innovation and Encourages IP Theft
2430 Director Glenn Chafetz argues in the Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS Review of International Affairs that China’s political system incentivizes IP theft as part of the country’s technology strategy.
Defending Against State-Sponsored Espionage Targeting the U.S. Private Sector is a Team Effort
2430 Director Glenn Chafetz argues in The Cipher Brief that investing in commercial counterespionage is a cost most companies do not even know they need to bear; but failing to do so risks a loss they cannot afford.
Doing business with China in 2023 has become more risky
2430 Director Glenn Chafetz and Patrick Walsh argue in the The Dallas Morning News that U.S. government's rules and institutions do not offer our private sector any protection.
A Typology of China's Intellectual Property Theft Techniques
After decades of ignoring the problem, the US and its allies are starting to comprehend the national security, economic, and political consequences of the torrent of intellectual property that China diverts from foreign private companies.
China's Counter-Espionage Law
China’s new counter-espionage law heightens risks for U.S. firms operating in the country, transforming normal business operations into potential national security threats.
Big Tech Connections to the PRC Government
Is it possible to show direct, observable connections between China’s big tech firms and the PRC government? Our analysis uncovers numerous direct fiduciary and controlling ties between Alibaba and Chinese State Owned Enterprises.
The UnderSimplified Podcast
From Aaron Brown, 2430 Group Associate founder
Aaron uses his career in the CIA, as an Army Ranger, and deputy sheriff, and now as an entrepreneur and technologist, to engage deep thinkers and experts across pivotal issues of our time. Using this platform, Aaron challenges these guests to join him in raising the quality of our collective conversation. And, if we are lucky, maybe we’ll find an easier path to travel together.